Sunday, February 8, 2009

Statistics by the generation: what will your descendants look like?

Reading statistics about car crashes, cancer, and poverty is one thing, but when will it happen to someone in your family?

There are loads of simplifying assumptions here, but it gives a general idea of just how likely certain life events are. The statistics are mostly for people in the US and assume each descendant has exactly two children (using the remaining 0.4 to account for infertility, deaths, etc).

Second generation: grandchildren (~25 years)
Third generation: great grandchildren (~50 years)

Fourth generation (~75 years)

Fifth generation (~100 years)

Sixth generation (~125 years)

Seventh generation (~150 years)

Eighth generation (~175 years)

Ninth generation (~200 years)

Tenth generation (~225 years)

Eleventh generation (~250 years)

Twelfth generation (~275 years)

Thirteenth generation (~300 years)

Fourteenth generation (~325 years)

Fifteenth generation (~350 years)

Sixteenth generation (~375 years)

Seventeenth generation (~400 years)

Eighteenth generation (~425 years)

Nineteenth generation (~450 years)

Twentieth generation (~475 years)

Twenty first generation (~500 years)

Twenty second generation (~525 years)

Twenty third generation (~550 years)

Twenty fourth generation (~575 years)
  • One will win the Nobel Prize

Twenty fifth generation (~600 years)
  • One will be President

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